You've doubtless already heard that Judge Kennelly has finalized the settlement between NAR and the Department of Justice. It looks like NAR may be interested in taking a bet with me on the number of VOWs there will be two years from now. According to the NAR press release on the settlement: "The impact of the amended VOW policy is expected to be minimal, since most consumers do not use VOWs because these sites require online registration."
Thursday, November 20, 2008
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3 comments:
Hi Brian,
Am totally loving the blog. :) Maybe this belongs on your other post, but...
Aren't you completely discounting the impact of consumers having to register in order to take advantage of the VOW listings?
Furthermore, as I wrote in my post on your post, isn't it entirely possible (perhaps even likely) that the MLS public-facing sites will displace all other websites in this space under these rules?
Either way, I'll take a bet with you. :)
I'm willing to wager dinner (with wine!) that there will not be 1,000 VOW websites (1/10th the number you're predicting) by the 2009 NAR Convention. If you attend, then one of us can take the other out to dinner.
Whaddya say?
-rsh
Rob,
I don’t think I’m discounting the registration hurdle at all. I just think the hurdle is proving lower all the time. First, consumers, especially young ones, are getting more comfortable with having to log in to a web site to use it. I mentioned Facebook and MySpace as examples. Social networking of any kind generally requires some kind of login.
Second, brokers are getting more savvy about using IDX to draw the consumer in and then getting her to register in return for extra goodies. For example, here in Minneapolis, if you use EdinaRealty.com, you can sign up to be notified of changes in price, open houses, etc., on listings in which you are interested. In order to do so, you have to provide an email address. Edina is wisely responsible—if you sign up there, they do not spam you with a bunch of junk; they send you only the stuff you ask for.
I don’t think brokers will move away from IDX. I think they will just add VOW capabilities. If I were a broker, I’d be happy if only 20% of my IDX site visitors registered for my VOW. Once the visitor is logged in, think of the adaptive technology I could use to show her things she might like. (I’m thinking along the lines of Amazon’s “people who viewed this entry also view” . . .)
-Brian
@Brian -
Thanks for the response, Brian. I guess I'll have to go over and comment at MLSTesseract as well. [And now I have!]
I'd love your thoughts on my speculation viz MLS/Realtor Associations being freed of the restrictions of both IDX and VOW under the new legal regime.
Because even if you're right about customer reticence re: registration, if there is an alternative out there that gives you all of the info with none of the registration, then the customers will flock there. And the MLS/Association websites will happily distribute leads to its members, ultimately resulting in brokerages having to ask why they should invest in IDX or VOW websites when their local MLS/Association gets all the traffic anyhow due to structural advantages.
Thx,
-rsh
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